Expert: We have a chance not to echo the third wave of the epidemic

By responsibly approaching the proposed steps to remove restrictions, we have a chance not to repeat the third wave of the epidemic, said Dr Anita Avelt of the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computer Modeling at the University of Warsaw.

When asked about the lifting of restrictions, the expert cautioned against opening the activity too quickly.

“If the activity was opened very quickly, it would unfortunately be possible to increase the number of infections,” she said.

In her view, if we approach the proposed solutions calmly and responsibly, then “we have a chance not to raise the echo of the third wave.” Vaccinations should also protect against a return to high rates of disease and mortality.

“When vaccinating, we aim to make sure that in the future, if there is an increase in infections, it will not be so high as in the fall and spring,” she said.

In early April, the highest daily number of injuries and deaths was recorded in Poland. On April 1, the Ministry of Health announced the discovery of 35,251 new cases of COVID-19, and on April 8, 954 patients had died.

The expert indicated that the peak of the third wave of cases had already been reached.

“We are in the regression phase of the third wave. Although the number of infected people continues to rise, the percentage of people recovering from the disease is improving. And most importantly, there is a very clear trend in the decrease in the percentage of positive test results, which indicates that the number of infections Decreases effectively, “- she declared.

She also noted that the restrictions imposed so far have had an effect, although they are not “as amazing as we expected”.

She explained that the point is that the infections are still at a high level, despite the low percentage of positive tests for detecting SARS-CoV-2 in the total number of tests that were conducted, which makes us undoubtedly happy and we may be. A harbinger of stabilizing the epidemic situation.

And she stressed that “at the summit, the rate exceeded 35 percent, and regionally even above 50 percent. It is important that this percentage has declined and now stabilizes strongly” – she stressed.

She pointed out that the reproduction rate of the virus, which shows the extent to which a sick person is infected, is low.

“This is a very reasonable situation. For the whole of Poland, the R index is now still above 1, but at the regional level, for example in Warmia and Mazury, it has fallen below 1 in mid-April” – she confirmed.

When the expert was asked when we can actually control the epidemic, he replied that it would be possible if we go back to detecting outbreaks and isolate people from what is called contact. She added that such a procedure is simple, but under fewer conditions than the current infections.

“It is a simple procedure. We discover an injured person, establish their contacts, and provide isolation to people who have been in direct contact with them. We do not allow a fire to break out” – she explained.

She added: “There is no such possibility at the present time, because the number of cases is still very high, but if it decreases, we can return to the scenario of fighting epidemics.” (PAP)

Author: Klaudia Torchała

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