The European Union is about to take a sharp turn. Within a year we might stop getting to know the European Union [FELIETON]

I don’t know why in Poland The view of the Federation as a separate entity, existing in isolation from the member states, has become entrenched. It’s like European Union They have created permanent institutions with great power and universal power. Just like in the United States, where individual states have their own governments, legislatures, and legal systems, central offices bind the federal state severely. The constitution and the ruling of the Supreme Court are sacrosanct.

The institutions of the European Union’s unification are dilapidated

Meanwhile, consolidate institutions European Union They are dilapidated creations created as a result of successive settlements. Yes, the European Parliament can accept Precision, The European Commission to initiate the procedure and CJEU to pass judgment. However, when the matter is serious, such as: the post-2008 financial crisis, the bankruptcy of Greece, the destabilization of the eurozone, and the first months of the pandemic, the imposition of unpleasant necessities was taken in tandem: Germany and France. Meanwhile, while it has been able to operate with relative efficiency a decade ago, it is getting worse every year. Until the complete abdication of the throne, when the Union faced the challenge of ensuring vaccine supplies to member states.

This shift comes at a time when the divergence of interests among European Union members has reached an unprecedented level in the past. south of Europe From Portugal to Greece, it fears bankruptcy threats and an influx of migrants from the other side of the Mediterranean. The north, from Ireland to the Netherlands to Scandinavia, tends to increase isolation to protect its prosperity. On the other hand, Central Europe has become an arena in which they try to expand their influence China And Russia, in the face of the dominant position of the United States and Germany.

Today the federation represents a cauldron of growing contradictions, and at the same time no longer bound by an amicable German-French alliance. when President Charles de Gaulle and Chancellor Konrad Adenauer initiated the implementation of the project, devised by their French advisors Jean Monnet and Robert Schumann, to serve the peaceful reconstruction of the strength of both lost powers. At the same time, ensuring stability and development and preserving the independence of all of Western Europe from both the United States and the Soviet Union. These goals have been achieved, a ZSRR It collapsed, but as it turns out, its stability cannot be guaranteed forever. Especially since then In the case of France, something went wrong.

French declension

If you want to see just how serious a setback is there in just one generation, a quick look back is enough. Until the 1990s, the Fifth Republic maintained its main role in Western Europe. Among the countries of the European Economic Community France It could boast of the most powerful army and its own nuclear arsenal and energy self-sufficiency due to the fact that the entire system was based on nuclear power plants (it saved more than 80% of the energy). At the same time, successive presidents have shown their aspirations for their homeland to preserve the status of one of the most modern nations in the world. The symbols of this were: the spaceport in French Guiana, great Ariane space rockets, Created under the auspices of Paris together with Germany and other countries – Airbus. An innovative high-speed railway should be added for this count TGV And a boring tunnel with the British under the English Channel.

Owned by the state since 1982 Telecommunications concern France Télécom (Today Orange) was building the comprehensive French network Minitel. It differed from the Internet that later appeared in the USA in that it formed a closed whole, and the service provider forced the customer to purchase a modem with a screen, which is a simplified computer. Ultimately, Minitel struggled with the internet for two decades, losing out due to its elitism and inflexibility. Although when the operator went out of service in 2012, there were still more than 800,000 people in operation. Terminals in companies and private users. Nota Benny, the collapse of the visionary Minitel network could become a symbol of France’s decline. A country whose economy used to keep pace with the German economy, and now needs a housing fund to save itself from prolonged collapse.

Despite the president’s efforts Emmanuela MacronThe Fifth Republic is neither innovative nor modern. In the early 1990s, Paris could easily force Berlin to create the eurozone in exchange for agreeing to German reunification. Today, she is unable to impose anything. Which frustrates the French terribly. “Once again you can see that the French-German couple at the helm of Europe is a distant dream. Germany is pursuing its policy, France has to adapt to it and follow Germany like a small dog.” Said Evan Reuvoll, a prominent columnist for the CNews debate in mid-March this year “This indicates our declining importance.” His partner, the conservative writer Eric Zemmour, said, “The French have realized the fall of their country and the removal of secrecy.” It could be worse.

An open letter from the French generals

20 retired French generals, supported by more than a thousand officers and soldiers, declared in an open letter to the nation: “We are the servants of the nation, who have always been willing to sacrifice ourselves, we cannot be passive witnesses to such events.” The magazine, published on April 22 in the weekly “Valeurs Actuelles”, literally gasped politicians and the media. For decades in the European Union, no military has dared to interfere in current politics. Especially to convey what appears to be the threat of coup in uniforms to the public. Nevertheless, the retired military dared to reproach President Marcon that France faced “several fatal dangers”. Among them, they mentioned in the first places: the religious war against Islam, the loss of control over the suburbs of the immigrants in the major cities, and finally the collapse of the state coupled with a general civil war. “We are still soldiers of France Announced military retirees who wanted to fight for their homeland. ” Macron and much of the political scene tried to remain silent on the appeal, but then he was preparing to fight for the presidency. Marine Le PenAnnounced itself. It called on the signatories to join it and “fight the battle for France” together.

In April 2022, presidential elections will be held on the Seine. In opinion polls, Macron’s advantage over the leader of the National Union (until 2018, the National Front) fell to 3-4 percentage points. There is no third candidate in sight who can beat both of these. If Macron wins, a divided France will continue to be weakened by the epidemics that have afflicted it. He became less and less a partner of Germany, and a “sick man” became more and more weary in the Union. And there are already a lot of patients: Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal.

If Le Pen winsIt does not want to leave the European Union or the Eurozone anymore, but it promises to close borders to the flow of migrants, and firmly protect its companies and the market, without further integration. Every decision must take into account the national interest of France.

What will happen in Germany?

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Rhine, parliamentary elections will take place six months in advance and are just as important for the future of the European Union. Angela Merkel When he goes into political retirement, he leaves CDU / CSU Tired of judgment and pestilence. Alternative leader Armin Laschet has no more power, either in society or even among the Christian Democrats. Similar fatigue affects SPD. Consecutive opinion polls show that two parties are running ahead of the race: the Greens are catching up with the Christian Democrats and the liberals of the FDP are already behind the rise of the Social Democrats. If the leader of the Green Party, Analina Burbock, becomes Germany’s new chancellor in the fall, that alone promises big changes.

Her party, aside from accelerating the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, also wants to speed up the union’s integration. Its pillars are new taxes on society (the Reconstruction Fund opens the door for that), provision of the European Union budget, strengthening the eurozone, and giving the European Parliament real powers. It is no longer a front institution and could have a real impact on the European Commission and member state governments. If the Greens had established a government coalition with the FDP and not with the SPD, then all the ministries could be ventilated in Berlin.

The near future scenario, in which Germany increasingly dominates conflict-torn France, carries with it only one certainty – changes in the performance of the European Union will begin to accelerate. Especially since then RFN It is strong enough today to force it, and at the same time too weak to sustain itself in the long run to maintain the unity of an increasingly broad and overwhelming structure. If France is destabilized, it seems nearly impossible to bear. In any case, those who will rule in Warsaw will face the inescapable question – what exactly does Poland want and how has it been achieved?

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